Donald Trump continues to act as if he has completely cornered Iran. He is unwilling to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the strait is currently open; while the reality is that Hormuz has only partially remained open.
Trump's Miscalculation
Trump is even unwilling to lift the blockade on Iran if the strait is reopened by Tehran; because in his view, Iran has lost control of the strait. Therefore, the U.S. President wants Tehran to first acknowledge its defeat in the Persian Gulf and then use the leverage of the blockade to extract nuclear concessions from Iran.
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However, the problem is that Washington has not only remained indifferent to the costs of this situation for America's regional allies, but it has also miscalculated the durability of the situation it thought it had created. This approach has effectively pushed Iran to react.
Escalation of Tensions to the Red Sea
Trump and his administration believed that Iran had no options left in the Persian Gulf and therefore saw the outcome as predetermined in their favor. However, Tehran chose a different path and extended the scope of tension to the Red Sea.
In what appears to have been a coordinated operation, Ansar Allah forces took control of the entire Red Sea coast, and Iran-aligned armed groups targeted significant sections of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia; developments that led to an increase in oil prices to $110 per barrel.
The bigger problem, however, lies in Washington's perspective on developments. The U.S. has repeatedly mistaken tactical advances for decisive changes in the strategic balance; a pattern that seems to continue.
Whenever Washington feels it has the upper hand, it significantly hardens its position; as Trump has done by refusing to negotiate and opposing the lifting of the blockade on Iran. Meanwhile, the existing reality does not necessarily justify such a hard stance, and the result is nothing but a further distancing of the prospect for a diplomatic agreement.
The issue is not just misreading the opponent's cards; the greater danger is misjudging your own cards as well.
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