Australia's Minister for Home Affairs, Tony Burke, introduced the government's new immigration policy yesterday. This announcement came during a week heavily influenced by the immigration issue, during which One Nation also presented its policies in this regard. The government's proposed policies appear to be reactive measures to the decrease in net overseas migration (NOM) and are not designed based on precise modeling of labor demand and the impacts of immigration on infrastructure.
Response to Temporary Visas
Burke was expected to present a comprehensive approach to reduce the 400,000 individuals with temporary visas, particularly those awaiting the outcome of their student or asylum visa appeals. The chances of success for these individuals in their appeals are very low, and as a result, a significant amount of time is spent reviewing cases. During this period, individuals receive temporary visas that allow them to work. It was also anticipated that the government would propose measures to limit the work capacity of these individuals and explore ways to restrict their right to appeal to encourage them to leave the country.
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However, it seems these measures have not materialized due to Burke's disagreement with the coalition over changes to immigration policy. Instead, he has proposed a return to 2015, when individuals whose options were exhausted were transferred to detention centers and quickly left the country. But now the number of individuals is much larger, and the capacity of detention centers to accommodate them or the ministry's ability to locate them is severely limited.
New Restrictions and Consequences
The proposed policies include limiting the right to work for individuals on temporary visas and imposing heavy penalties on Australian employers who illegally hire individuals without work rights. However, this 2015 approach is unlikely to have much impact. Data shows that the low number of exits, not the high number of arrivals, is the main reason for the lack of a rapid decrease in net overseas migration rates. The failure of individuals to leave the country on time also undermines the credibility of the immigration system. Instead of focusing on this issue, Burke is seeking measures to reduce arrivals.
Among these measures is preventing the entry of spouses and children of Australian citizens as visitors and then applying for permanent residency. As a result, an Australian citizen may be forced to leave the country to live with their partner from another country. This measure will also apply to students, who will not be able to bring companions with them to Australia. These restrictions are unlikely to have a significant short-term impact on net migration, as more than half of individuals in this category are already in Australia.
The government has also proposed holding a lottery for granting working holiday visas for the second and third years. This measure could affect the number of individuals working in the agricultural and mining industries and raise concerns for farmers suffering from labor shortages. Overall, it seems the government has prioritized reducing net migration and is not paying attention to the comprehensive planning that experts have called for.
Many individuals affected by these categories are currently employed in jobs that are important for the economy and society. For example, with the increased demand for elder care following COVID-19, many migrants have been working as caregivers. Given that the baby boomer generation is rapidly approaching the age of 80, a decrease in the number of workers in this sector could create serious problems.
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