The increased pressures on Saudi Arabia in the Yemen war due to recent advances by the Ansar Allah forces have posed serious risks for the country. In recent weeks, Ansar Allah has advanced along the western coast of Yemen and approached the Bab al-Mandab Strait, creating new threats to Saudi interests and pushing the country into a difficult situation.
Field Developments and Washington's Decisions
Mohammed bin Salman has requested military assistance from U.S. President Donald Trump to counter the advances of Ansar Allah. However, Trump has not agreed to a direct attack on Ansar Allah positions and has only provided information and targeting assistance. This indicates that despite decades of arms purchases and reliance on U.S. security, Saudi Arabia is now forced to bear the heavy military burden alone. This change in U.S. support could lead to a strategic shift in the Yemen war.
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Impact of Developments on Saudi Oil Exports
One of the most significant recent developments is the damage to the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia, which has been severely damaged due to drone attacks by Ansar Allah, and repairs may take 3 to 5 weeks. This pipeline, which has a capacity to transport 7 million barrels of oil per day, is of high strategic importance to Saudi Arabia. Although some limited capacity transport may continue during repairs, a prolonged shutdown will exert additional pressure on the global oil market and send a message to Riyadh that none of its export routes are safe.
Furthermore, the continuation of missile and drone attacks by Ansar Allah in southern Saudi Arabia is also increasing. In recent days, sirens have sounded in the cities of Abha and Khamis Mushait, and explosions have been heard in these areas. These attacks highlight the severe vulnerability of Saudi energy infrastructure and could lead to heightened tensions.
According to analyses, these developments warn Saudi Arabia that it must seek options for negotiation and de-escalation. With both of its oil export routes under threat, Riyadh is facing a real deadlock and must make careful decisions.
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