In the next five years, global warming will reach the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius emphasized in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This situation will have dire consequences, from the rapid melting of glaciers to dead white corals. While the world has yet to seriously tackle climate change, we must now focus on limiting the amount and timing of the "increase"; which means how much global temperature exceeds the 1.5-degree mark.
Challenges Ahead
Our new research shows that if governments take immediate and ambitious actions, the world can limit maximum temperature to around 1.7 degrees Celsius and achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the 2060s. However, to do this, we need to rapidly reduce dependence on fossil fuels, which account for over 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Australia has committed to this goal at the COP28 summit in 2023 and other conferences.
The Path Forward
To achieve climate goals, Australia must transform its energy system. Fossil fuels provide about 90 percent of the country's raw energy and contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. To realize our proposed pathway, Australia’s net emissions need to be reduced by 55 percent below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach zero by 2050. With current policies, Australia will struggle to meet its 43 percent target for 2030.
The transition to renewable resources, such as solar and wind energy, is essential to stay below the 1.5-degree limit. However, forecasts indicate that Australia will only achieve 33 percent of its 50 percent target for 2035. Policy changes are essential, and the non-binding target of 82 percent renewables by 2030 must be strengthened.
Progress in reducing emissions requires fundamental policy changes and effective implementation of regulatory mechanisms. Additionally, phasing out subsidies and support for fossil fuels can help reduce emissions. Ultimately, a phase-out of fossil fuels in Australia could be a sign of true leadership.
