The Russian parliamentary elections will take place from September 18 to 20, 2026, amid the country being in the midst of a war with Ukraine. Given the energy crisis, battlefield failures in Ukraine, and concerns about new conscription, it seems the Kremlin should be worried about the results of this election. However, few observers believe that the outcome of the election is in doubt; the victory of the United Russia Party led by Vladimir Putin appears almost certain.
Kremlin Strategies to Maintain Power
In 2020, evidence emerged suggesting that the Kremlin does not need widespread fraud to achieve a parliamentary majority. Russian election managers have consistently used pressure tactics, putting pressure on business and bureaucracy leaders to ensure government support from their employees. In this election, the margin of votes for the United Russia Party and the level of pressure the Kremlin exerts on voters to maintain a two-thirds majority in parliamentary seats will indicate the level of public support for the government.
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Challenges and Social Pressures
Evidence shows that Russians are approaching the polls with a sense of despair. A war that was expected to last only a few days has now continued for years, and its costs weigh heavily on Russian citizens. The popularity of the United Russia Party in polls has dropped to around 32 percent, the lowest level since the war began in February 2022. This figure is likely exaggerated due to respondents' fear of disclosing their dissent.
The Kremlin has consistently used election management tools, especially in rural areas, and it seems that in this election, based on past experiences, it will employ various methods such as changing electoral boundaries and monitoring voting results to maintain power. However, serious questions remain about how the elections will be monitored and the accuracy of their results.
The lack of independent observers and the Kremlin's pressures on monitoring organizations, such as the dissolution of the election monitoring organization GOLOS, are other issues casting a shadow over the credibility of this election. Additionally, the removal of the Yabloko Party, the only independent and anti-war party from the list of candidates, clearly indicates the Kremlin's tight control over the electoral process and its intolerance of any dissent.
Overall, given the social challenges and strategies employed by the Kremlin, the 2026 elections could serve as a serious test for Putin's power and the United Russia Party. The results of this election will not only impact Russia's political future but also have repercussions on global developments.
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