The trade policies of the United States under President Donald Trump have become an intriguing experiment over the past decade. The main question is: what happens when the world's most powerful economy changes its course towards international integration?
Key Changes in Trade Approach
After three decades of Washington supporting free trade and strengthening global trade rules, Trump's presidency took a new direction by making key decisions such as withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and imposing new tariffs on trading partners. While other Western countries like Canada and the European Union adhered to multilateralism, the United States moved towards protectionism and economic nationalism.
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Unexpected Results and Challenges Ahead
As ten years have passed, the initial results of this experiment have gradually become apparent. Initially, based on the 'bicycle' theory in trade policies, it was expected that stagnation in trade liberalization would lead to a decline in it, but data shows that global trade has continued to thrive. For example, the share of trade in global GDP increased from 54 percent in 2016 to 68 percent in 2025.
Moreover, the United States has not only avoided the economic crisis predicted by critics of protectionism but has also performed better economically than other major countries. From 2016 to 2025, the per capita GDP of the United States has grown by 18.3 percent, the fastest rate among G7 countries.
This data suggests that Trump's trade policies may be succeeding and that critics may have overestimated the risks of nationalist policies. If the United States continues to grow, other countries may feel pressured to reevaluate their trade strategies.
Ultimately, while none of these facts can resolve ongoing debates about U.S. trade policy, the data clearly indicates that the new approach could be considered a sustainable model in the future.
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