The Houthis in Yemen have rapidly advanced along the shores of the Red Sea, seizing control of the vital port of Mocha and strategic islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This strait is recognized as a critical point in the maritime route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean, and given the frequent closures of the Strait of Hormuz this year, it has become an important alternative route for the export of oil, liquefied natural gas, and other goods.
Impact on Saudi Oil Exports
Saudi Arabia, in particular, transfers about 64% of its oil exports through an east-west pipeline to the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea. Recently, this pipeline has been damaged due to drone attacks, leading to an increase in oil prices. These attacks have apparently been carried out from Iraq by Iranian-affiliated militia groups.
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Global Consequences
The advances of the Houthis are seen as a sign of Iran's will to continue its long-standing war against the United States and its allies. The Houthis have directly stated that their target is Saudi ships and oil exports, but various countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa are also dependent on goods that pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Houthi control over a vital maritime route, especially from the strategic position of Mocha, could potentially disrupt global maritime traffic. There is a possibility that the Houthis could quickly halt maritime traffic using asymmetric methods such as drones and anti-ship missiles.
Moreover, considering the dangerous situation in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, countries in the region are likely to continue their efforts to build and develop roads and rail lines for transporting goods from the area. These changes will take time and cannot fully replace maritime routes. In the meantime, the global economy will need to be reorganized, which will be accompanied by rising fuel prices and inflation.
Ultimately, the crisis in the Red Sea may directly involve European countries in tensions with the Iran-affiliated Houthis. Any escalation of the crisis will depend on the future actions of the Saudis and the Houthis.
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