Armenia is gradually distancing itself from traditional Russian influence, and this change has become particularly evident in the shadow of the Ukraine war. Over the past two decades, Moscow has acted as a major player in the South Caucasus using its controlling policies. However, now, in light of the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, this power is clearly diminishing.
New Relations Between Armenia and the United States
In February 2025, JD Vance traveled to Yerevan as the first Vice President of the United States, bringing with him an agreement on nuclear energy and an $11 million package for drones. In May, Marco Rubio, the U.S. Secretary of State, signed a strategic agreement that included the production of minerals and a new transit corridor. These developments indicate a shift in the balance of power in this region, which has historically been dominated by Russia.
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Weakening of Russian Influence
Russia's power in controlling its neighbors has significantly decreased. From 2011 to 2020, Russia supplied 94% of Armenia's arms imports. However, India has now replaced Russia as the largest supplier of arms to Armenia. This change reflects deep shifts in Armenia's defense policies and its efforts to diversify its defense supply sources.
Additionally, Armenia passed a law in 2025 that paves the way for joining the European Union. Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of Armenia, is seeking to end the Russian railway consortium and has explicitly stated that Moscow's management has become detrimental to the strategic interests of the country.
International Implications
The peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, overseen by the United States, was signed in August 2025 and recognized the Soviet-era administrative borders as international borders. This agreement not only helps to end the long-standing conflict but also strengthens Armenia's relations with the West and reduces its dependence on Moscow.
Moreover, the International Peace and Prosperity Corridor (TRIPP) plan could serve as a key project for connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey and linking Armenia to the vast economic corridor from China to Europe. However, this plan faces the condition of removing the language regarding the unity of Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia's declaration of independence, highlighting the political and social complexities in the region.
Ultimately, these developments clearly indicate a shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus. Armenia is emerging as an independent and democratic country, shaping a new identity that could contribute to the stability and development of the region.
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