Saudi Arabia is currently faced with two strategic options, each leading to serious challenges. While the country is trying to end the confrontation with Ansar Allah (the Houthis), it must consider that any choice it makes will come with significant costs.
Choosing Between Peace and War
If it wishes to end the tensions, Saudi Arabia must accept the main demands of the Houthis and lift the restrictions on Yemen. This action may lead to a reduction in Houthi attacks, but at the same time, it will strengthen the economic and military capabilities of this group. In other words, by conceding to the Houthis, Saudi Arabia may experience a short-term calm, but in the long run, it will face a stronger threat.
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Rising Costs
On the other hand, if Saudi Arabia refrains from this option, it must continue the confrontation, the costs of which are increasingly rising. Houthi attacks and their Iraqi allies on Saudi energy infrastructure, especially the East-West pipeline, have become a serious threat to the economic interests of the country. In fact, these tensions pose not only a threat to the economic stability of Saudi Arabia but also a challenge to its international credibility.
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia must choose between two difficult situations: strengthening the Houthis through concessions or enduring a protracted war that seems unlikely to have a clear end. As Saudi Arabia bears the burden of this war alone, the Houthis exploit the power asymmetry between the two sides. Saudi Arabia has much to lose from prolonged instability, which leads to even more serious challenges.
Without the participation of the international community, Saudi Arabia appears to be in a position where it must consider not only the costs of war but also the costs arising from strengthening the Houthis. This situation indicates that Saudi Arabia's choices are more complex than they seem, and there is no easy solution.
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