Mahdi Hasani, in his new analysis, examines the consequences of the Ramadan War on the American order in the Persian Gulf and concludes that the instability of this order will lead to deeper changes rather than its collapse. The main question is what order will replace the American structure under the current circumstances?
Consequences of the Ramadan War on Regional Security Order
According to Chatham House, regional orders do not disappear suddenly; rather, they gradually erode. The US and Israel's war against Iran is recognized not only as a serious challenge to the foundations of the American order but could also be seen as a turning point in the history of international relations in the Persian Gulf. In particular, the changes resulting from this war are clearly reflected in the military and security structure of the region.
The long-term significance of the Ramadan War is not limited to its battlefield outcomes but points to new realignments in the region. For instance, serious damage to more than 12 US military bases indicates the vulnerability of this military structure and the need to redesign the United States' security architecture in the Persian Gulf. Such changes could lead to reliance on less visible bases and the use of modern technologies such as artificial intelligence and precision strike capabilities.
Multipolarity and the Emergence of New Actors
Chatham House believes that the future of the Persian Gulf will move towards multipolarity. In this scenario, Arab monarchies will be forced to reconsider their security architecture due to America's inability to ensure their security. Recent attacks on Arab countries and the limitations of the American security umbrella have clearly revealed this reality. In particular, the attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in 2019 demonstrated that this security umbrella can no longer fully protect the Gulf monarchies.
China, as one of the main actors in these developments, could play a significant role in shaping the new order. This country, recognized as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and the main trading partner of the Arab monarchies, is in a position to expand its influence in the region. In the future, China may take on a broader security role in the Persian Gulf, which could further weaken the American order.
Overall, Chatham House's analysis indicates that Iran will govern with greater influence in the post-war era. This country will seek to improve its relations with the Gulf countries and rebuild the resistance axis structure. In this regard, a managed coexistence with Saudi Arabia will become a strategic necessity.
